Likely motivated by concerns about tariffs and future higher prices, Cox Automotive’s latest report shows that new vehicle shoppers were out in force early this month, helping to keep the sales pace relatively strong but still down from a market surge in March.

Cox Automotive forecasts the April seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, to reach 16.4 million. This result would be higher than last April’s 16 million rate and the best April since 2021, according to Cox Automotive.

However, the sales pace this month is forecast to be far lower than March’s 17.8 million level, as the second half of the month showed signs of cooling after a very fast start. New vehicle sales volume is expected to be higher by 4.6% year over year but lower by 12% from March’s total.

“Forecasting sales in this volatile market is quite challenging, and that is what we have right now, a market being steered by headlines coming from the White House,” said Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist, in a press release. “Concerns about potential future vehicle prices due to tariffs led to a surge in March sales, and April began with similar robustness. However, inventory levels have declined substantially over recent weeks, likely pushing vehicle prices higher, so the end of April may not be as strong.

“With economic concerns rising and consumer confidence declining, the outlook for new auto sales from here is more troubling. If current policy holds, prices in the new vehicle market will be noticeably higher in the coming months as more costly products replace pre-tariff inventory.”

According to Cox Automotive, new-vehicle inventory across the U.S. at the start of March was nearly 3 million units, with measured days’ supply at 89.

By the beginning of April, inventory had declined to 2.7 million, and days’ supply was at 70, partially due to the hotter sales pace, Cox Automotive wrote. And new vehicle inventory continued to slip through early April, with days’ supply falling to near 60 at a mid-month measure.

The official April inventory level will be released in the first part of May.

New tariffs on assembled vehicles and some automotive parts are expected to disrupt supply chains and increase repair costs. However, Mitchell International says the impact likely won’t hit until mid- to late summer.

A 25% tariff on assembled vehicles imported into the U.S. went into effect on April 3, and a 25% tariff on some parts is set to begin May 3.

Six trade groups representing automakers and the aftermarket wrote to the Departments of the Treasury and Commerce last week asking that regulations to implement President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on imported automotive parts allow them more time to reroute supply chains.

The letter notes research from the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) that estimates the uniform 25% tariff on all trading partners will impact more than 17 million vehicles, including 6.8 million of the Detroit 3’s, i.e, General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis.

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